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The Boston Celtics Should Cut Back On The Hero Ball
Note: this was published elsewhere some six months ago.
Over the course of their Western Conference road trip — and briefly before, in a game against the Orlando Magic — the Boston Celtics have found themselves drawn into a frustrating pattern outlined by Celtics writer John Karalis: They miss open shots; when they miss open shots, they don’t necessarily stick to a system or start running plays or making the extra pass to get themselves shots; instead, it appears they just switch to hero ball.
That kind of choice may work if you’re Jimmy Butler seeking to prove a showy point, but in the current iteration of the NBA, it appears to be a one-way ticket for the team to spend time over the course of three different games down by 20 points.
Hero ball should not be a damagingly seductive choice. Ball movement creates open shots. You don’t need to be a deep-seated fan of Gregg Popovich’s philosophy to believe that. You can take a glimpse of the back-of-the-napkin math ESPN did in 2012. You can read this anonymous paper from the 2015 Sloan Analytics Sports Conference. You can squint at the charts.
The authors of the Sloan paper argue that a ball-handler has a high likelihood of scoring if he attempts a shot where there’s an immediate opportunity. If the offense is efficient, he should be…
