Hi, friends —

I want to put some charts and images together to urge you to either stay home this Thanksgiving or to take a lot of precautions in the run-up to Thanksgiving and beyond.

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Things are quickly spiraling out of control at the macro level. Our current national positivity rate (9%) means we need to be doing more tests than the amount of tests we’re currently doing in order to get a sense of who has the virus and where it is.

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The upper-left image indicates the percentage risk of encountering at least one person with Covid in a group of ten. The numbers on the right indicate which states currently have an estimated R value over 1 — that is, its reproduction value, i.e., the fact that the virus is capable of spreading to at least one other person.

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This is why hearing reports of how Covid is spreading through ice hockey games or at house parties or is only ‘really’ relegated to a place like Staten Island might not matter, because — as the R value indicates; as the macro maps indicate — the virus is still spreading. You might be able to contact trace something down to a certain level of specificity, but something is still leading to the macro result.

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Numbers are rising and getting worse, again — my current state is two-to-three weeks away from moving to overflow hospital capacity? — and some of you are still thinking of going to Thanksgiving?

Please don’t be one of the 40% planning to attend Thanksgiving with 10+ people. Don’t be one of the 30% planning to not mask or ask others not to wear a mask. Please don’t make a bad situation worse.

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And if you have to be with people in the run-up to Thanksgiving — what has been one of the historically busiest travel days of the year, which would risk spreading an already out of control virus all the more — then please take as many precautions as you possibly can. Please. Please, please, please.

Sources:

(1) https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
(2) https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
(3) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/us/covid-hospitalizations.html
(4) https://rt.live/
(5) https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
(6) Snapchat
(7) https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

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